Naval Research Laboratory: Marine Geosciences Division Code 7440: Mapping Charting and Geodesy Branch LENS -- Littoral Environmental Nowcasting System The goal of this work will be to predict the likelihood and magnitude of significant morphologic change such that medium-range forecasts (days to months) and real-time nowcasts can be made for areas of operation for which the environmental conditions are only coarsely sampled. Our expectations are to continue transitioning models and methods that will improve the war fighter's ability to foresee nearshore environmental changes that affect his capabilities and to exploit this variability to military advantage. LENS Overview The littoral region (especially the surf zone) has been identified as an area of great importance for successful Naval operations largely due to the wide range of variability in littoral morphodynamic features encountered worldwide. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal variation of littoral morphodynamics is critical to Naval issues such as mine burial and beach trafficability. Unfortunately, bathymetric measurements in many coastal regions are difficult to obtain because certain locations are inaccessible to conventional collection platforms and frequent, high-resolution samples are required. So a prior determination of bathymetric features and contours may not provide an accurate characterization of the littoral environment at the time of the planned operation. Therefore a modeling solution is needed to estimate variability following the most recent survey or to predict the maximum allowable lead-time for which useful measurements can be made. Littoral nearshore regions are dynamic geomorphic systems that respond to hydrodynamic forcing processes over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Changes in profile elevation of more than a meter over time spans as short as a few days have been observed. However different regions responded differently in terms of the time interval for which morphologic features can be considered "stable". Characterization of the often-nonlinear response of the morphodynamic system is a prerequisite to understanding the environment impact of morphology/bathymetry on Naval systems. Areas of Study and Development Stochastic Models of Morphodynamic Behavior with a Minimum of Environmental Inputs Video-Based Surf Zone Parameter Estimation Airborne Monitoring and Data Collection